Open-source intelligence · recursive self-improvement

How many times will SpaceX fly in 2026?

Sunday 27 September. USSF-385 flew yesterday, so the Falcon year is 110. Flight 14 is stacked for tomorrow.

2026

148

Range 141–156 · confidence 76%

143 Falcon-family flights and 5 Starship tests. Below 2025’s 167 because Florida pads are held for Starship.

September 2026

Range 7–8 · confidence 80%

7 Falcon flights are already up, including USSF-385 yesterday. No Falcon is left this month. Flight 14 is 62% for tomorrow.

October 2026

Range 8–14 · confidence 62%

6 dates are locked and the Falcon point is 10. A Starship in October is only 32%, and only if Flight 14 misses September.

2026 cadence

Flown bars are solid. Open forecast through December is hatched in the stack.

Flown
Remaining

September manifest

Seven Falcon flights are up. Flight 14 is stacked for tomorrow.

2 Sept08:42Z
Starlink Group 15-23
Flown
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
6 Sept14:26Z
Starlink Group 15-24
Flown
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
10 Sept15:42Z
USSF-153 (R-2)
Flown
Falcon 9 · ~23 Starshield · Vandenberg SLC-4E
13 Sept18:49Z
O3b mPOWER 11–13
Flown
Falcon 9 · 3 × SES O3b mPOWER · Cape Canaveral SLC-40
17 Sept01:07Z
USSF-259 (TH-1)
Flown
Falcon 9 · ~17 Starshield · Vandenberg SLC-4E
20 Sept01:47Z
Starlink Group 15-27
Flown
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
26 Sept14:00Z
USSF-385
Flown
Falcon 9 · Classified USSF · Vandenberg SLC-4E
28 Sept12:15Z
Starship Flight 14 / Starlink Group 31-1
Hold
Starship · 26 × Starlink v3 · Starbase Pad 2

October manifest

Six dates are on the book. Bandwagon-5 is still month-only.

1 Oct15:10Z
Crew-13
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · Crew Dragon · ISS · Cape Canaveral SLC-40
1 Oct18:18Z
Transporter-18
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · FORMOSAT-8B / GTM + rideshare · Vandenberg SLC-4E
2 Oct03:53Z
NROL-97
Scheduled
Falcon Heavy · Classified NRO · Kennedy LC-39A
5 Oct08:06Z
SDA T1TL-A
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · 21 × Transport Layer · Vandenberg SLC-4E
10 Oct16:00Z
Starlink Group 15-25
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
31 Oct23:59Z
CRS-35
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · Cargo Dragon · ISS · Cape Canaveral SLC-40
NET Oct
Bandwagon-5
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · Mid-inclination rideshare · Cape Canaveral SLC-40

Cycle 0 · 27 Sep after USSF-385

How the number was built

Sunday morning, 27 September: USSF-385 flew yesterday and the Falcon year-to-date is 110, plus two Starship tests already flown. The year call stays 148, about 143 Falcon flights and five Starship tests. September’s point goes back to 8. Seven Falcon flights are up and nothing else Falcon is left this month. Flight 14 is stacked for 12:15 UTC tomorrow; that is a 62 percent orbital debut, so the base case includes it. If it slips, September closes at 7 and October picks up the Starship. October stays at 10. Six flights now have a date, including Crew-13 and Transporter-18 on the 1st. Bandwagon-5 is the one still marked only as October.

Method changes

Book USSF-385 as flown. September Falcon is closed at 7.
Put Flight 14 back in the September base case at 62 percent because the vehicle is stacked for a dated window.
Count six October dates: Crew-13, Transporter-18, NROL-97, T1TL-A, Starlink 15-25, and CRS-35. Bandwagon-5 stays month-only.
Leave the year at 148. Saturday’s flight was already inside the Falcon total.

Still open

Whether the FAA clears Flight 14 for tomorrow. A hold moves one Starship into October and drops September to 7.
NROL-97’s 1 October tracker date. Falcon Heavy is the flight most likely to leave the month.
How many extra Starlink groups Vandenberg adds after 10 October.
Bandwagon-5 still has no public day.

Improve the forecast

Run another RSI cycle. The agent re-reads the corpus, attacks the last method, and republishes the year, September, and October bands.

Open RSI agent