Open-source intelligence · recursive self-improvement

How many times will SpaceX fly in 2026?

Updated 22 September. Starlink 15-25 left September for 10 October. The desk is current through 109 Falcon-family flights and 2 Starship tests.

2026

148

Range 141–156 · confidence 73%

143 Falcon-family flights and 5 Starship tests. Below 2025’s 167 because Florida pads are held for Starship.

September 2026

Range 7–8 · confidence 86%

6 already flown. 1 Falcon attempt remains: USSF-385 on the 26th. Flight 14 is 55% on the 28th. Starlink 15-25 left the month.

October 2026

Range 7–13 · confidence 54%

3 dates are locked and the Falcon point is 10. A Starship in October is only 30%, and only if Flight 14 misses September.

2026 cadence

Flown bars are solid. Open forecast through December is hatched in the stack.

Flown
Remaining

September manifest

Six flown. One Falcon left. Flight 14 is still FAA-gated.

2 Sept08:42Z
Starlink Group 15-23
Flown
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
6 Sept14:26Z
Starlink Group 15-24
Flown
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
10 Sept15:42Z
USSF-153 (R-2)
Flown
Falcon 9 · ~23 Starshield · Vandenberg SLC-4E
13 Sept18:49Z
O3b mPOWER 11–13
Flown
Falcon 9 · 3 × SES O3b mPOWER · Cape Canaveral SLC-40
17 Sept01:07Z
USSF-259 (TH-1)
Flown
Falcon 9 · ~17 Starshield · Vandenberg SLC-4E
20 Sept01:47Z
Starlink Group 15-27
Flown
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
26 Sept11:56Z
USSF-385
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · Classified USSF · Vandenberg SLC-4E
28 Sept13:15Z
Starship Flight 14 / Starlink Group 31-1
Hold
Starship · 26 × Starlink v3 · Starbase Pad 2

October manifest

Three dates are locked. Four more are month-only and may slip.

1 Oct15:10Z
Crew-13
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · Crew Dragon · ISS · Cape Canaveral SLC-40
1 Oct18:08Z
Transporter-18
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · FORMOSAT-8B / GTM + rideshare · Vandenberg SLC-4E
10 Oct16:00Z
Starlink Group 15-25
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · 27 × Starlink v2 Mini · Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET Oct
CRS-35
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · Cargo Dragon · ISS · Cape Canaveral SLC-40
NET Oct
SDA T1TL-A
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · 21 × Transport Layer · Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET Oct
NROL-97
Scheduled
Falcon Heavy · Classified NRO · Kennedy LC-39A
NET Oct
Bandwagon-5
Scheduled
Falcon 9 · Mid-inclination rideshare · Cape Canaveral SLC-40

Cycle 0 · 22 Sep reweight

How the number was built

As of 22 September, SpaceX has flown 109 Falcon-family missions and two Starship tests in 2026. The year call is 148 launches: about 143 Falcon flights and five Starship tests, inside Shotwell’s 140–145 Falcon band once Heavy is included. September is now 8, not 9. Six Falcon flights are already up, USSF-385 is the only Falcon left this month, and Flight 14 is a 55 percent orbital debut on the 28th. Starlink 15-25 left the month. October’s point is 10: three dated Falcon flights (Crew-13, Transporter-18, Starlink 15-25), a discounted set of four month-only missions, and a few extra Starlink slots. If Flight 14 misses September, October picks up that one Starship.

Method changes

Drop Starlink 15-25 from September and book it on 10 October.
Count September Falcon remaining as one flight: USSF-385 on 26 September.
Score October as dated flights plus a discount on NET-month missions, not as a flat weekly rate.
Keep Flight 14 in September at 55 percent. If the FAA slips it, October inherits that Starship, not a second one.

Still open

FAA license for Flight 14. A slip moves one Starship from September into October.
Whether CRS-35, SDA T1TL-A, NROL-97, and Bandwagon-5 all stay inside October.
How many unnamed Starlink groups Vandenberg adds after 10 October.
Q4 Starship cadence after the first orbital attempt.

Improve the forecast

Run another RSI cycle. The agent re-reads the corpus, attacks the last method, and republishes the year, September, and October bands.

Open RSI agent