2026
148
Range 141–156 · confidence 73%
143 Falcon-family flights and 5 Starship tests. Below 2025’s 167 because Florida pads are held for Starship.
Recursive self-improvement agent
Argue with the last answer
Cycle 0 is the 22 September ingest: Wikipedia, Spaceflight Now, and the October manifest. Each later cycle is a Grok pass that must beat the previous year, September, and October numbers.
September 2026
8
Range 7–8 · confidence 86%
6 already flown. 1 Falcon attempt remains: USSF-385 on the 26th. Flight 14 is 55% on the 28th. Starlink 15-25 left the month.
October 2026
10
Range 7–13 · confidence 54%
3 dates are locked and the Falcon point is 10. A Starship in October is only 30%, and only if Flight 14 misses September.
Run the next cycle
Each pass re-reads the news corpus, critiques the prior forecast, and writes a tighter method. 5 improvement cycles left in this session.
Cycle 0 / 5
Improvement log
1 cycles on record
Cycle 0 · 22 Sep reweight
2026 148 · Sep 8 · Oct 10
As of 22 September, SpaceX has flown 109 Falcon-family missions and two Starship tests in 2026. The year call is 148 launches: about 143 Falcon flights and five Starship tests, inside Shotwell’s 140–145 Falcon band once Heavy is included. September is now 8, not 9. Six Falcon flights are already up, USSF-385 is the only Falcon left this month, and Flight 14 is a 55 percent orbital debut on the 28th. Starlink 15-25 left the month. October’s point is 10: three dated Falcon flights (Crew-13, Transporter-18, Starlink 15-25), a discounted set of four month-only missions, and a few extra Starlink slots. If Flight 14 misses September, October picks up that one Starship.
Self-critique
- Yesterday’s September count of 9 still included Starlink 15-25. Spaceflight Now moved that flight to 10 October.
- October is not a blank. Three dates are locked (Crew-13, Transporter-18, Starlink 15-25) and four more are month-only.
- A year total near 148 still fits Shotwell’s 140–145 Falcon band plus a handful of Starship tests. Do not revive the 155 pace case without a Florida Starlink return.
Method upgrade
- Drop Starlink 15-25 from September and book it on 10 October.
- Count September Falcon remaining as one flight: USSF-385 on 26 September.
- Score October as dated flights plus a discount on NET-month missions, not as a flat weekly rate.
- Keep Flight 14 in September at 55 percent. If the FAA slips it, October inherits that Starship, not a second one.