Space2027

As of 27 September 2026

Recursive self-improvement agent

Argue with the last answer

Cycle 0 is the 27 September check: USSF-385 flew, and Flight 14 is stacked for the 28th. Each later cycle must beat the previous year, September, and October numbers.

2026

148

Range 141–156 · confidence 76%

143 Falcon-family flights and 5 Starship tests. Below 2025’s 167 because Florida pads are held for Starship.

September 2026

8

Range 7–8 · confidence 80%

7 Falcon flights are already up, including USSF-385 yesterday. No Falcon is left this month. Flight 14 is 62% for tomorrow.

October 2026

10

Range 8–14 · confidence 62%

6 dates are locked and the Falcon point is 10. A Starship in October is only 32%, and only if Flight 14 misses September.

Run the next cycle

Each pass re-reads the news corpus, critiques the prior forecast, and writes a tighter method. 5 improvement cycles left in this session.

Cycle 0 / 5

Improvement log

1 cycles on record

Cycle 0 · 27 Sep after USSF-385

2026 148 · Sep 8 · Oct 10

Sunday morning, 27 September: USSF-385 flew yesterday and the Falcon year-to-date is 110, plus two Starship tests already flown. The year call stays 148, about 143 Falcon flights and five Starship tests. September’s point goes back to 8. Seven Falcon flights are up and nothing else Falcon is left this month. Flight 14 is stacked for 12:15 UTC tomorrow; that is a 62 percent orbital debut, so the base case includes it. If it slips, September closes at 7 and October picks up the Starship. October stays at 10. Six flights now have a date, including Crew-13 and Transporter-18 on the 1st. Bandwagon-5 is the one still marked only as October.

Self-critique

  • The 23 September point of 7 assumed USSF-385 might still slip out of the month. It flew on the 26th.
  • Flight 14 is no longer a vague NET. The stack is on the pad and tomorrow’s 12:15 UTC window is the base case again.
  • October gained dates. NROL-97, SDA T1TL-A, and CRS-35 are no longer blank month slots, but Heavy and cargo still slip.

Method upgrade

  • Book USSF-385 as flown. September Falcon is closed at 7.
  • Put Flight 14 back in the September base case at 62 percent because the vehicle is stacked for a dated window.
  • Count six October dates: Crew-13, Transporter-18, NROL-97, T1TL-A, Starlink 15-25, and CRS-35. Bandwagon-5 stays month-only.
  • Leave the year at 148. Saturday’s flight was already inside the Falcon total.